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Time to withdraw from Afghanistan | 12-06-10
A troubled land
Afghanistan is a land of contrasts. I would like to say it is a ‘nation’ of contrasts but the fragmented tribes, religions, cultures and a history fraught with bloodshed, means it has along way to go before stability and nationhood will sit easily on its troubled shoulders. Back in 2001, I travelled to Pakistan and drove from Quetta up to the Afghan border town of Chaman. The refugees were massing on the other side waiting and hoping to be let into Pakistan to escape the war that was raging on the other side of the mountains. I wandered around a refugee camp and was confronted by angry Pashtun elders who simply saw me as a 'Westerner'. My short speech in English condemned the actions of George Bush and Tony Blair. Unfortunately, the translator was a little behind translating my denunciations and all the crowd understood was a Western politician mentioning two reviled names who they held responsible for the deaths of their families and loved ones back over the border. I remember standing there as the crowd surged forward, screaming abuse wanting to lynch me and the only police officer with me grappling to try and get his revolver out of its holster. I remember feeling the hot dry breeze on my face and waiting for the first blow. The BBC were calmly filming, no doubt hoping that they could turn a fairly boring story of an independently spirited MP travelling to the Afghan border to highlight the plight of the refugees, into a real scoop of MP being buried alive in the Afghan desert. Luckily for me the tribal elders held back the angry young men swinging punches, long enough for the sweating translator to get the message across that I was against the war. It demonstrated to me though the wretchedness of those that had suffered and how miscommunication can be the precursor to violence. Later on I was given nothing but hospitality and respect as I walked without any protection amongst the tents guided by Red Crescent officials and a tribal elder. Seeing a little girl the same age as my eldest son back home with long black hair and dark brown eyes racing around the tents, at first it brought a smile to my face. She happily chatted away about something that I did not understand and then I noticed that she had no shoes on and her little feet were cut to ribbons on the sharp stones scattered across the sand. She was still smiling in spite of the blood dripping onto the rocks.
The war against the Taliban
It is important to make clear that the Taliban regime pre-2001 committed atrocities, abuses of human rights (especially against women) and imposed its radical version of Islam on the country. Their version of Islam is world away from the mainstream religion of Islam that preaches and practices peace, tolerance and togetherness.
Casualties
Year | Number of Taliban and associated forces killed |
2001 | 9,129 |
2002 | 1,011 |
2003 | 239 |
2004 | 334 |
2005 | 2,081 |
2006 | 3,451 |
2007 | 7,000 |
2008 | 7,000 |
2009 | 4,000 |
2010 | 482 |
Total | 34,727 |
In the last two years the military have stopped releasing any figures but given the detail of reported deaths I think it is reasonable to state that some 35,000 Taliban men have been killed in the fighting. If such casualties had been inflicted on most armies in the modern age they would be seriously defeated.
Over 1,700 Coalition military forces have been killed (and another 10,500 injured). These include 294 British military personnel who have bravely given their lives in defence of their own country but unfortunately in an ill thought out campaign.
On 26th June on Armed Forces Day we remember those men and women throughout the ages who have defended these isles and undertake the most difficult and dangerous missions asked of them by our political leaders. Around 102,500 troops are now engaged with hundreds of thousands of militant fighters.The Afghan security forces have lost over 5,500 dead and over 300 private security contractors have been killed. As such, around 7,500 Coalition and Afghan security forces have been killed.
At least 10,000 civilians are estimated to have died as a direct result of the war and at least another 3,200 have died as an indirect result of the war. Total estimates for the number of civilian men, women and children that have died due to the war vary between that 13,200 figure and 33,000. The US military don’t believe in producing official figures for the innocent dead. Civilians have been killed by both the Taliban and Coalition forces. Over the last nine years some 50,000 people and possibly up to around 70,000 are dead from the fighting in Afghanistan.
Categories killed | Number |
Coalition forces | 1,792 |
Civilian | 13,200-33,000 |
Taliban and associated forces | 35,000 |
Total | 49,992-69,792 |
Strife and conflict
Some 300,000 people have been displaced from their homes according to Amnesty International. There are also reports of some 700 Afghans are being held without charge or trial at the US Bagram base. Now, let’s not pretend that these are all innocent bystanders. Some could be vicious sadistic killers but it is a great propaganda weapons for the Taliban to make martyrs of these people. They should be placed on trial or released (or failing that deported). However, the Amnesty International 2010 report also highlights positive news that some 360,000 refugees have returned from Pakistan and Iran.
Unless the military overstep agreed rules of war and the Geneva Conventions and there have been a few such alleged incidents, then the responsibility for such military actions lies with the politicians. First Tony Blair, then Gordon Brown and now David Cameron bear that responsibility of a flawed and failing policy of long term war exposing our men and women in the armed forces to a highly dangerous mission in a situation that is politically highly unlikely to succeed in delivering a safe, stable country that can develop its public infrastructure and encourage wealth creation through private business.
President Karzai
President Karzai’s tainted election last year and the recent internal political turmoil provides little reassurance that the current Afghan administration can seriously pull the country together and force the Taliban to negotiate a peaceful end to the war. The US and UK have a right to expect more from Karzai who has repeatedly failed to tackle corruption and is whispered to be undertaking communications with the Taliban that seem to over step the mark when it comes to trying to identify a road map to peace. The last few weeks have seen a last attempt to try and create a united front between Karzai and President Obama that will patch up the differences. The truth is that everyone knows Karzai is not the man to save Afghanistan.
Phased withdrawal of the Coalition forces
The war in Afghanistan has now been raging for nearly nine years and the spin doctors continue to tell us back in Britain that in spite of the Taliban attacks, the war is being won and we just need to step up the attacks on the Taliban, strengthen the reconstruction work and the training of the Afghan Army and Police and soon we will be pulling back with the 'job done'. Once the NATO ground troops pull out or are confined to base, as night surely follows day, the Taliban will soon be swarming around the Afghan Army and although there will be
air support for a long time to come, areas of the country will rapidly be under effective control of the Taliban. In such a large rural land where Taliban sympathisers live and work the land, it is deeply frustrating that it is just a question of time before swathes of the country will be back in their hands.
It is time now to seek a temporary truce with those Taliban and militant forces in order to allow an
orderly exit of Coalition ground forces to withdraw from the south and east and in effect
split the country with the Uzbeks and Tajiks becoming independent from the Pastuns in the south. Kabul could just about remain as the capital of the north but would need a buffer zone around it on the southern side. A new President should be elected as soon as possible.
Supremacy in the air and building a first class intelligence network on the ground would allow the Taliban and militant jihadists to be contained. Taliban leaders responsible for atrocities should be identified and
brought to justice. However, the long term outlook for the country is bleak with a
porous border on the east with Pakistan potentially creating displaced conflict onto the Afghan/Pakistan border. There are no easy answers but the current strategy of ramping up troop levels will create more casualties and ultimately be the precursor of scaling back forces only for the Taliban to take over.
It is time to acknowledge the futility of the war and sort out how we can remove our troops from harm's way in an orderly manner. It is time for a containment strategy instead of open warfare.
A tough alternative system of justice
The problem with all these kind of invasions is that there is no consistency of principle behind them. If there was a straight Good vs Evil principle I would argue it was naive and simplistic but at least I could see the logic behind it. However, there is the usual muddled political reasoning that defines an evil regimes such as the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq that must be removed by force as they are a threat to Western interests but a refusal to deal with Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe.
When I visited the Milosevic Trial in The Hague in 2003, I saw a man facing justice. He could try and insult the judges and harangue witnesses but justice was alive and kicking. He was safely locked up and having to face those innocent people affected by his evil orders. Any dictator can appear to be enjoying the public arena but they are not there of their own volition. They can no longer enjoy the trappings of power with exorbitant wealth. They return to a small cell every night and ultimately if found guilty, will usually serve very long sentences, if not the rest of their lives. Seeing Milosevic on trial filled me with a certainty that there is a better way to all out wars unless other nations are directly threatened and as a last resort.
To bring those individuals to justice though may require specific military missions with sufficient authority from the UN Security Council following international arrest warrants issued against individuals by the ICC. As democracy spreads and Western justice ideals become accepted around the globe so the International Court of Justice (ICJ) should become the place to settle disputes between nations. Perhaps it will take 20 years, maybe 50 years or 100 years, but it cannot come soon enough. The evolution of humankind will one day triumph so that wars become as obsolete as those who proclaimed the Earth was flat. I am an optimist and one day peaceful, tolerant human behaviour will supplant our violent instinctive past.
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England to win World Cup 2010? | 11-06-10
The time draws near. The questions are being asked (again and again). Will Emile Heskey provide the perfect support to hold up the ball for a lethal Rooney? Can Gerrard work in harmonious partnership with Lampard? Will James hold onto the Goalkeeping Number one shirt? Will Carragher or King partner Terry in central defence. Etc etc. Well all those endless repetitive questions will soon be answered when England begin their Group C games on Saturday against the USA.
Every four years England works itself into a national frenzy of hope and expectation to end in tears and frustration (if not a smidgeon of humiliation) as we find our team knocked out at the quarter final stage. Could 2010 be any different? Well yes (I was going to say maybe but that seems very defeatist). Let’s deal with the negatives first (goodness only knows how many more the newspapers can dig up):-
1. We have just lost our Captain, Rio Ferdinand, on the eve of the World Cup when he injured himself in training.
2. We don’t have Owen Hargreaves to provide a proven holding midfielder to protect the back four when the fullbacks surge forward (Glen Johnson & Ashley Cole) down the wings.
4. We have to face USA in our Group opener match and they are just six places behind us in the FIFA/Coca Cola Rankings.
5. We haven’t yet found a good partner for our star striker Wayne Rooney upfront (Crouch? Heskey? Defoe?) On the positive side:-
1. Rio had been injured on and off all season and clocked just 24 appearances. The new Captain, Steve Gerrard is a phenomenal captain for his club and after a lousy season is fired up to lead the national team to victory. (Remember how he fired up the crowd when he pulled one back for Liverpool in Istanbul to 1-3; the Reds went on to win on penalties)
2. Gareth Barry is nearly fit and can play as a holding midfielder. 35
5. Who cares who partners Rooney (who is world class) as long as someone scores and England win matches?
Prediction
Given that I was 20 seats out for the Conservatives (and likewise for the Lib Dems) but overall 7/10 perhaps for predicting the outcome of the General Election, I thought I might as well have a go at trying to predict England’s triumphant march towards Stevie G lifting the Cup.
Group C
England 2-0 USA
England 3-1 Algeria
England 3-0 Slovenia
Last 16 - England 1-0 Serbia
Quarter Final - England 2-1 South Africa
Semi Final - England 3-2 Brazil (AET)
Final - England 2-1 Spain
Yes, that’s pretty (very) optimistic but the sun is shining and sometimes you just have to believe. England expects.....
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Fabio Capello; gilt edged record | 09-06-10
Oh to be the
England Manager. First you are lauded for your great sporting record and writers (er sorry journalists) pontificate on your tactical prowess to bring back the next World Cup/European Championship (depending upon the timing). Then even when you have won virtually single important competitive match they will still niggle away, upset players and generally cause a huge nuisance. However,
Fabio Capello has been in the role for nearly two and half years and no journalist
has yet to seriously damage his reputation as the England Manager. With a win ratio of 75% after 24 games that is the best by an England manager post war.
1.^ – managed the team on two separate occasions as caretaker manager
2.^ – managed the team on a one-off basis as caretaker manager
Fabio Capello is a man with a superb footballing history. He played as a midfielder for Roma (1 Coppa Italia), Juventus (3 Serie A titles) and AC Milan (4 Serie A titles, 1 Coppa Italia). He made 332 appearances for senior clubs and scored 45 goals. He won 32 caps for Italy and scored 8 goals including scoring the winning goal against England when Italy beat them for the first time in competitive football in 1973.
His managerial record runs as follws:-
AC Milan 1991-96 4 Serie A Titles, 1 UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 1996-97 1 La Liga Title
AC Milan 1997-98
Roma 1999-2004 1 Serie A Title
Juventus 2004-06 2 Serie A Titles
Real Madrid 2006-07 1 La Liga Title
England 2008-
Whichever way you look at that record it is first class, nay world class.
Managing the top sides in Europe and repeatedly winning the league and cups demonstrating his ability for tactical brilliance and management.
He has taken swift, action when the
John Terry affair threatened to tear the team apart with a few brief words and incisive action.
However, it is worth raising the question of how he is coping with the tremendous stress of being the England Manager on the verge of the World Cup. He bawled out the players for a lacklustre first half against the minnows of the
Platinium Stars . Today he has
scolded photographers taking shots of the medical centre (not sure what was going on inside but perhaps Capello feared the long range lenses might reveal something damaging such as treatment on a England player?)
Is the Stars incident because he was genuinely fed up with the way England Players seem to be coasting around the pitch. Yes, but did he purposely set up the game to puncture the usual England complacency in a more realistic setting than just on the training ground and where his words would sting far more in the glare of the world’s press? I think he has some real nagging doubts about certain key players and wants to keep them on edge to bring the best out of them. Likewise, I wonder whether his outburst with the photographers was to demonstrate his protection for his players or whether he was worried that his carefully preparations could be blown off course by a canny photo of a possible injury? I think his avuncular approach suggests he is protective of players but only up to a certain point. He is totally ruthless in his pursuit of victory. That’s why he is right for England.
Yet it will all come down to 3 games in the group stage, last 16, quarter final, semi-final and final (if we get through them all). That is just seven games to truly judge the managerial skill (given the players he has to work with) to turn a gilt edged club record into a solid gold international country record. We wish him and the team well.
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Israel and Palestine; lasting new peace accord needed | 04-06-10
Mavi Marmara arriving in Ashdod (Photo: Avi Rokach)
Again more violence, more deaths. This time Palestinians and their supporters on board the Turkish ship, the Mavi Mamara carrying supplies to Gaza are shot. Killing those people was wrong. It seems the operation was botched and soldiers endangered by poor intelligence and dreadful political decision making. It was probably unlawful ( if the blockade is unlawful so was the Israeli attack, but if the blockade is lawful so is enforcing it) and understandably the world condemns Israel. But this situation is not black and white; it never has been.
With passions, aroused to an intense frenzy by some people involved in the bitter, hate filled dispute between Palestinians and Israelis, it is difficult for a reasoned voice to be heard. Inevitably, yet more riots were triggered today in parts of Israel.
Residents clashed morning Umm al - Charcoal with security force
What I say, I say in good faith as a Friend of Israel and call it as I see it (I may well be wrong).
Whilst saluting the spirit of solidarity that those involved with the flotilla of ships, it would appear that the ships had not been loaded safely (jepardising the lives on board ironically) nor did some of them apparently have the correct maritime documentation. There appears to have been a stockpile of weapons although counting kitchen knives that could have come simply from the ship's galley seemed a bit dubious. Nevertheless, the attacks on the Commandos from the video footage seemed real with vicious attacks on the soldiers triggering an over reaction that was fatal. Difficult to know the truth prior to any kind of investigation but well armed soldiers should be able to hold back an aggressive, angry mob at gun point without firing or only firing warning shots.
Soldiers attacked on the Mamara
It is true to say that five ships were boarded peacefully and without incident. The sixth turned into a running battle and should have been avoided.
So let those people not die in vain and all sides should come together to negotiate in good faith. Nothing will be achieved by more revenge attacks. I can understand Israel's intense frustration that the regular rocket attacks (77 between 1st January and 1st June this year), suicide bombers and general violence against its own citizens and the IDF creates a popular demand among Israelis 'to do something'. Acting tough has been the typical hawkish response by politicians across the Israeli spectrum.
Rocket attack, December 2008
One casualty of the Mavi Mamara attack, was Prime Minister Netanyahu cancelling his scheduled meeting with President Obama at the White House.
Prime Minister Netanyahu
This was another missed opportunity to reset the peace talks. Later Netanyahu commented that the ship was a "premeditated act of violence", which seems frankly to be utter tosh. If the ship had docked in Israel, it is highly unlikely that there would have been any violence. The Israelis will argue, understandably, that they had good reason to believe that there could be weapons on board which may have been used against Israelis in due course, but to date no substantial weapons such as rockets have been found.
Likewise, the inflamed, denunciation of the attack by Prime Minister Erdogan in Turkey in which he stated, "if you want the enemy of Turkey, it will be violent and cruel", was less than helpful.
Prime Minister Erdogan
Israel should let the Rachel Corrie ship from Ireland to pass safely through on Wednesday and then quietly check the cargo when in port and everyone has disembarked. Otherwise, the violence could be worse.
The blockade of Gaza must end. Amnesty have condemned the "extreme poverty" of the 1.4 million Palestinians crammed into Gaza. The Hamas-approved rocket attacks must end.
Since Israel, withdrew from Gaza in 2005 (and Hamas coming to power in 2007) 1,754 Palestinians (including 309 children) and 117 Israelis (including 12 children) have been killed another 7,000 Israelis and Palestinians have been injured.
Both Israelis and Palestinians need to be reassured that they can live in peace and the US is vital to building trust and confidence. The Israelis and Palestinians should engage and agree a new Road Map to a clearly defined vision of peace. There will be many who want such peace accords to fail. Peace must not fail.
Otherwise, the senseless (and yes it is utterly mad for both sides to try and exterminate each other) violence and needless deaths will continue.
Time for cool heads and tough talking. In 2010, peace can be found.
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David Laws - a tragic story but he can return | 31-05-10
I sincerely hope that David Laws can clear his name and come back into front line politics. There is talk that he will resign as an MP. That would be a mistake on his part as he begins to sort out the turmoil in his life. I remember David as a decent, quietly spoken man of great integrity and a thoughtful, intelligent contributor to debates.
For the record, yes it appears he should not have claimed the rent of a home owned by his partner and his words about not really living with a 'partner' seem dubious at best. However, no doubt in the stress of trying to protect his privacy he has made mistakes - and paid for them in a big way.
It would be understandable to succumb to the tabloid criticism and at times vile media attempts to try to out him and for him to throw in the towel. He should not. Voters decide who they want for their MP and not journalists. It is easy to say that sexuality doesn't matter in today's society but there is still extreme prejudice out there at times and no wonder David sort to protect his sexuality. Ignore the froth of the endless newspaper stories, David. It was right to step down as a Minister and refer yourself to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards. Let him look into it, then pay back any money that is required and move on with your life.
There the matter should rest. Otherwise, every single MP should resign now (all of them have secrets) and we will never have anyone anywhere representing British voters. The rules have to be followed but sometimes the pursuit of truth turns into persecution and the effects on individuals are traumatic.
I trust David, his partner, James and their families can have some privacy and piece together their lives. Hang in there, David and life will get better. I trust you will be back in Government shortly.
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Déjà vu 1997? | 26-05-10
It does feel a little like the heady days of May 1997 with a new energetic Prime Minister full of bright ideas and popularity ratings rising like the space shuttle on take off. This time it is a Conservative Prime Minister, but his decision to bring in
Frank Field as ‘Poverty Czar’ and Will Hutton on a ‘fair pay review’ for the civil service demonstrates that he is reaching out to mainstream left of centre thinkers.
Will Hutton
Likewise, Cameron’s decision to bring in the Liberal Democrats to a Coalition Government signals his intention (for now) to try and build a consensus approach to change. Now of course, there will be challenges to that approach and no doubt in the future some of those brought in will feel that they are not being listened to. We must expect a few high profile walk outs and condemnations but there seems to be a steely resolve to make the new system work. With fixed term parliaments and surrendering forecasts to the
Office of Budget Responsibility there has been an attempt to decentralise. Cameron has promised to make it the
“greenest Government ever” but concerns remain over how he will lead the fight against climate change. He has already been to Scotland and today is
travelling to Wales.
Those tough spending rounds following the
Budget on 22nd June by George Osborne the Chancellor though, which will be the litmus test for the Government to see if it is as good as its word (the markets will be scrutinising that one) and then the pain from real cuts to real public services. There is talk of
“brutal” cuts to the NHS. DFID has already found
‘frivolous’ projects being axed by Andrew Mitchell.
But credit where credit is due, David Cameron has made a positive start and is doing well. On the
Andrew Marr Show, he was like a breath of fresh air in talking about long overdue change. He was scathing about
75% of civil servants earning bonuses in the past year in spite of the terrible recession and mediocre performance. The fact remains that Labour and especially Gordon Brown had become stale in Government. The fizz of that first term with constitutional changes to devolved Government and the big social changes such as the Minimum Wage petered out and the public was no mug; it could see that the Labour Government was stuttering along.
Cameron is off to a flying start. The whirlwind of change (for the better) is whipping through Whitehall. Yet if the Conservatives are polling at 40%+ again and commanding a clear lead in the polls, there will be muttering in the ranks that he has given up the right of going to the polls. There will be wistful gossip that he could go to the polls and win an outright majority easily. He should ignore the mutterings and see through this seismic change in the way British politics is being conducted. There is now an opportunity to forge a new way that Britain is governed.
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Tread carefully with North Korea | 26-05-10
As tensions grow with North Korea (DPRK), so the calls for sanctions increase. It is highly likely that North Korea was responsible for sinking the South Korean navy ship the Cheonan on 26th March killing 46 sailors and triggering a furious response from President Lee in Seoul. Even the United Nations has condemned the action.
The Cheonan being recovered after sinking
Such an act of violent aggression is unacceptable and Pyongyang needs to understand that given the history between the two countries, such an attack would be considered an act of war. However, Pyongyang is stating that it did not authorise an attack and such claims are a "fabrication". The South responded with a propaganda war dropping leaflets and using loudspeakers urging North Koreans to defect. Whilst such actions are to a degree understandable they are hardly helpful to resolving the situation. It was unlikely that such tactics would have any diplomatic effect other than provide further excuses for the North to escalate matters.
Sure enough, North Korea has now stated it will sever all ties with the South and is continuing to ratchet up the rhetoric. Given the evidence that a North Korean manufactured torpedo hit the Cheonan it is almost certain that the Government must have been involved if not authorised it. Perhaps it was a reckless accident, in which case, North Korea should come clean and take responsibility. Covering up the actions whether accidental or deliberate will not win it any friends.
North and South Korean soldiers stand guard on the border
The Chinese are taking a cautious line understandably but behind the scenes must be deeply angered that at a time when the US and China are engaged in improving relations the whole issue of 'North Korea' is climbing rapidly the diplomatic agenda.
This is China's backyard and as a superpower is demonstrating leadership in dealing with the ongoing erratic and dangerous games played by President Kim.
It would not be surprising if it it turned out that the North had explicitly ordered the attack to position itself for further concessions with China and the US and negotiate additional help and support as its economy falters. The CIA reports that many North Koreans suffer from "prolonged malnutrition". With South Korea accounting for 38% of the North's exports, the ending of trade will yet again hit ordinary people hard.
This is a game of brinkmanship. Where will all this lead to? With North Korea seemingly intent on developing "offensive" nuclear weapons there can be no doubt that it would use such weapons if President Kim felt sufficiently threatened. The breakdown of the Six Party Talks (North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Russia, China and the US) following a second nuclear explosive test and a series of cruise missile tests in May 2009 has left a diplomatic vacuum. However, is it a coincidence that President Kim hinted at a resumption of talks earlier this month when he visited China?
The map shows estimated maximum range of a successful launch. Range is also affected by the size of the payload.
The maze of diplomatic talks needs to be approached with the utmost care and China is critical to their success.The stakes are high. Yet the fact that North Korea wants to talk seems to demonstrate that they are engaging in a high profile 'gunboat diplomacy'. Perhaps it is new aid or cash that they want. China can earn a lot of appreciation if it can lever a deal out of the forthcoming storm. With President Kim Jong-il looking frail on his visit to China will the young (28 years old), reclusive, heir apparent Kim Jong-un succeed him as President and bring North Korea in from the cold?
Kim Jong-un - the next President of North Korea?
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John Bercow deserves to be Speaker | 18-05-10
John Bercow is a man of integrity with a quiet demeanour and a thoughtful, tolerant outlook on life. In the times that I came across him I found him to be puritanically polite with a cricketing sense of fair play.
I sincerely hope that the House of Commons re-elects John Bercow and that it appreciates a good Speaker when it has found one.
Elected in 1997, I remember this polished MP carefully choosing every word to tackle Ministers and offer his views on all manner of debates. He made a positive impression.
In 2002, he stuck out his neck to defy Conservative Whips over a vote on gay and unmarried couples adopting children. He urged a free vote on a matter of conscience. That is the mark of an independently minded, parliamentarian. Too many have forgotten the paramount importance of parliament in a digital, PR age with Prime Ministerial TV debates and 24/7 news. John Bercow is the essence of what is decent in the Commons. After the expenses scandal he can lead the Commons forward through rapid, progressive changes to modernise it.
In 2005, he was presented with the prestigious 'Opposition MP of the Year' award for his repeated meticulous scrutiny of the Government in numerous debates and question times. In 2008, he was in charge of the 'Bercow Review' for review of children and families affected by speech, language and communication needs (SLCN), which was widely praised.
In 2009, at a speech to the Hansard Society he set out a persuasive vision of how parliament should and could re-connect with the public and how to create a 'people's parliament'.
Yes he flipped his house and yes he paid an accountant to complete his tax return. Compared to duck houses, moats and the rest these were minor infringements of the spirit of the rules.
It is rather his manner and outlook which is to be cherished. John Bercow has been an excellent Speaker and offers a modern vision for the future of the mother of all parliaments. I trust parliamentarians will back him.
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New dawn, new Conservative/Lib Dem Government | 17-05-10
British politics has just made a seismic shift in its politics with a surprise and sudden Coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
Best of luck to David Cameron and Nick Clegg in delivering a strong, stable government but their relationship and the relationship between their parties will come under tremendous strain as the expected cuts in public services,wage freezes and increases in taxes start to bite this year and next. To be fair to the Prime Minister he made an impressive speech in Downing Street yesterday. Yet he will find that he cannot enjoy much of a honeymoon period.
I think though that as their popularity plummets they have no choice but to bind together and ride out the storm ahead. No doubt though the new Cabinet will have some ding dong discussions over the agreed Coalition Agreement.
Farewell to Gordon Brown who made a first class speech yesterday and left head held high with poise and dignity. His speech in Downing Street and later to Labour workers in Millbank was the best I have heard from him in many years. Those speeches came from the heart with passion and a sense of pride in his achievements and the achievements of the Labour Government. His flaws were there for all to see but no one can say he is not a decent man who deserves some peace and quiet now. He will still be contributing to the country, his party and to his charitable work for many years to come.
Labour will get on and choose its new leader and bide its time. Early indications (with Alan Johnson backing him) are that David Miliband will win that party election and become the Leader of the Opposition.
The Lib Dems did rollercoaster to Government but not in a Labour-Lib Dem Coalition which would have been the more natural partnership based on philosophy and policy. There is a story to tell on what exactly happened after the Labour Cabinet authorised a negotiating team to sit down with the Lib Dems yesterday but apparently seemed determined to scupper any talks. Did Ed Balls decide that he did not fancy trying to putting together an unpopular Rainbow Coalition and jepardising his own chances of becoming Prime Minister (since such a Coalition had more chance of breaking up early)? No doubt that story will come out soon.
Probably Labour strategists decided that it was much better to let a Conservative and Lib Dem Coalition carry the can for all the industrial unrest, strikes and public sector cuts over the next two years. That plan may well backfire given the amount of money available to George Osborne when he cashes in the nationalised bank shares and could find that after a troubled two years the Con-Lib Dem Government popularity starts to rise again in 2012.
Come the next election (if they make it the full term to 2015) there will have to be some sort of accommodation between the Conservatives and Lib Dems as they will be defending the same record in Government and fighting each other to standstill in key constituencies would be madness. There may not be a formal pact to fight the next election but rather tacit agreement where to focus resources to optimise each other's chances of electoral success.
There is an ominous precedent for a Conservative-Liberal Coalition Government during World War One when David Lloyd George split the Liberal Party in two by joining with the Tories. There then followed the Twentieth Century decline in the Liberal Party. I think Clegg will have to stick out the storm ahead and whilst publicly trying to show his independence knows that he has to make the Coalition work for at least two years.
Ultimately though if the Government is successful it will be David Cameron and the Conservatives that will benefit the most. Since they are so close to a majority already they would not need the Lib Dems post 2015 if there seats increase by another nineteen (assuming they win the by-election). What then for the Liberal Democrats? They will have been castigated by Labour and the Left and potentially could yet again find themselves squeezed between the two major parties.
Will an AV system make much of a difference to the outcome of an election? Below would be the results for First past the post as per 2010, Alternative Vote and Single Transferable Vote. (It assumes the Conservatives will win the by-election to take them to 307 seats). Clearly AV will boost the Lib Dems by 22 seats and bring down the Conservatives by 16 seats with Labour a fraction up. It would strengthen the Lib Dems position in a hung parliament. However, on a full blown STV system neither of the two parties will again hold complete power and put the Lib Dems in Government on a permanent basis. However, the opportunity for PR may have been lost for another generation after the collapse of the negotiations with the Labour Party and the refusal of the Conservatives to entertain the idea. The only slight hope now is that the Lib Dems table an amendment to the Voting Reform Bill and hope Labour will back them (unlikely on a free vote with at least one third of Labour MPs opposing).
Party 2010 result AV STV
Conservative 307 281 246
Labour 258 262 207
Lib Dem 57 79 162
Other 28 28 35
Total 650 650 650
On the other hand, if Labour collapses into in-fighting, during and after the leadership election, can the Lib Dems build on their success and increase the number of seats at the next election under an AV system, to block any single party from outright power?
If one or two hours yesterday was a long time in politics then heck anything could happen over the next four years.
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Two years of a fragile world economy battered by industrial strife? | 15-05-10
In spite of the European Union stitching together (at last) a rescue package of 750 billion Euros last Sunday, the cold winds presently sweeping parts of Europe is a sign of deep, brutal cuts and higher taxes soon arriving in most countries. The next two years will see growing waves of industrial strikes and unrest.
We have already seen in
Greece, riots, violence and general mayhem on the streets. Three deaths in Athens followed running battles between Police and protesters with attempts to storm parliament by militant unions. The shocking scenes of criminal attacks cannot be excused by the incompetence of the Greek Government or the affects of the banking crisis. There is no excuse for trying to change a democracy through violence. Today
Greece asked for the first tranche of €20 billion from the €110 billion agreed to assist with debt repayments due this month.
This is an ugly sign of worst to come in many countries around the globe.
Spain is expected to announce deep cuts in public spending and higher taxes to try and satisfy the powerful markets. There is an expectation that the budget deficit will be reduced from 11% to 4.7% by the end of next year. In reality that means finding 6.3 billion Euros of savings this year and another 13 billion Euros next year.
Portugal has announced it is aiming to reduce its budget deficit further than planned. It is now aiming to take it from 9.4% last year down to 7.3% this year.
Ireland is trying to maintain its current level of budget deficit reduction and stave off increased reductions.
In the
European Union, unemployment is climbing to 10%, with the promise of a ‘V’ shaped recession that bounces back strongly based on savage cuts and tax increases this year and next but the worry that if the cuts fail to satisfy the markets or the EU bailout plan fails then a ‘W’ recession is on the cards. Since, the EU will not allow the bailout to fail (it would be catastrophic for the Euro) then it reinforces the need to drive through real cuts in public sector spending. The worst is still to come.
In the UK as across the rest of Europe and beyond, that can only mean ultimately reducing public services in hospitals, school, transport and local government. Likewise, charities that deliver public services will find that after this year’s reduction in central government funding further cuts will almost certainly follow for next year and possible the year after. However much governments try and mitigate the reductions the fact remains you cannot protect all end users of public services from the affects of reduced budgets. Something has to give. Local Government in the UK was still complaining in the boom years with regular increases in allocations that it was not enough to fund services on the ground. What on earth will happen when real cuts are dished out in the emergency budget in the coming weeks by the Conservative/Lib Dem Government? Everyone will be affected from pensioners, the sick and the vulnerable in our society.
Business is urging on these cuts in the budget deficit but without a single word spoken by business leaders on how those who are most at risk in society will be protected. The
CBI's plan has some well thought out and positive contributions to the debate but they fail to address the other side of the equation; social impact from cuts.
Yes, understandably they want to see a strong economy being rebuilt so that they can delivered wealth creation and more jobs but they do not appear to appreciate the devastation a closed hospital ward or residential home for older citizens or increased class sizes in schools or fewer Police officers on the beat has on our communities. It is relatively easy to reduce the budget but much harder to rebuild society if another underclass is born. I trust the
Lib Dems will stand fast against any attempt to undermine improvements to the social fabric of our society. It isn't in a great state now and we do need some real progressive policies to efficiently get people back to work and improve the quality of life in our most troubled areas.
The fact remains that the UK holds golden shares in the nationalised parts of the banks and as those companies return to huge profits so the public value in those shares grows. There will be rich dividends for
George Osborne within two years to cash in and allow tax cuts and a modest sprinkling of public sector spending for chosen areas from 2012 onwards that will seek to rebuild the Conservative/Lib Dem Government’s inevitable unpopularity prior to the next election in 2015.
No doubt the Conservative Chancellor will seek to improve rapidly the projected figures for the
UK economy and will relish the opportunity to bring down the budget deficit quickly. After New Labour and the era of Brown’s economic policies has finally ended, so George Osborne will tear up previous
debt management plans and forecasts to restructure the economy. It is very likely his policies to rebuild the British economy will ‘work’ but the question will be; what’s the affect on the vulnerable in society?
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Opmerking:
Business Consultant. Former MP. Former Director of Policy of animal charity.